https://www.stbourke.com/our-placemaking-projects daily 0.75 2023-02-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ce435d6bea1ed00016ba287/1558964652247-5MWXNMFZVOPGE4TY6U2Q/MHeiderich_ReflexionenZwei-05-copy.jpg Where https://www.stbourke.com/connect daily 0.75 2026-02-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ce435d6bea1ed00016ba287/1558964652247-5MWXNMFZVOPGE4TY6U2Q/MHeiderich_ReflexionenZwei-05-copy.jpg Connect https://www.stbourke.com/news-and-insights daily 0.75 2023-02-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ce435d6bea1ed00016ba287/1558964652247-5MWXNMFZVOPGE4TY6U2Q/MHeiderich_ReflexionenZwei-05-copy.jpg News and Insights old version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1289b5e7-3a7f-44d2-b34f-39d0401d167e/MARKET+REPORT+ATL+Year+End+2022.jpg News and Insights old version - Our Market reports St. Bourke’s dedicated research team exhaustively monitors the housing market and provides unique analysis to help you make more informed investment and development decisions. Click here to access our latest market reports or request custom reports tailored to your project or portfolio. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/65581e98-a2c9-4dee-a330-c28e58f2fe31/StB+GOLD+Marcom+2022+StB.jpg News and Insights old version - St. Bourke wins Marcom Gold! The series of illustrations for St. Bourke’s Social Media were just awarded the prestigious 2022 Marcom Gold Award in the category illustrations! November 22, 2022 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5beb769c-d571-4ca7-a8b1-910841bf1eff/Screen+Shot+2022-11-09+at+9.39.19+PM.png News and Insights old version - St. Bourke: Despite slowdown, Gwinnett retains new-housing crown Article by Denim Marketing/Einnews.com November 1, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/27e80fba-adc4-48cf-91f5-ccf680e83639/Screen+Shot+2022-09-29+at+9.42.46+PM.png News and Insights old version - Atlanta Real Estate Forum Podcast Director – Research & Communications Katie Fidler with St. Bourke joins the Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio podcast to talk about land development post-COVID, popular community amenities and build-to-rent. Listen here https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5a948875-e4be-4c07-b1a3-cdd9281d49dc/Screen+Shot+2022-09-02+at+12.20.14+PM.png News and Insights old version - St. Bourke: Despite slowdown, Gwinnett retains new-housing crown by John Yelig – Reporter, Atlanta Agent Magazine August 30, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/44b07998-7dd2-4bad-83be-8c7a68cc9be8/Screen+Shot+2022-08-13+at+12.05.50+AM.png News and Insights old version - What Future Residents Want from Tomorrow's Communities National Association of Home Builders, Blog article Aug 10, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3dd26c86-7080-415a-a027-d12672895749/Screen+Shot+2022-09-29+at+9.04.07+AM.png News and Insights old version - Who will succeed in the build-to-rent sector remains to be seen As home sales slow, knowing what single-family renters want is crucial for builders pivoting to a build-to-rent strategy. by Joe Bousquin – Reporter, Builder Magazine July 07, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/d8c39900-45b1-492d-8c39-b0a3aaaf01fc/2Q22+National+Market+Report.jpg News and Insights old version - Our Market reports St. Bourke’s dedicated research team exhaustively monitors the housing market and provides unique analysis to help you make more informed investment and development decisions. Click here to access our latest market reports or request custom reports tailored to your project or portfolio. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/477df6d9-3c71-41f0-bfdc-6bef9edebe9d/Screen+Shot+2022-09-29+at+9.09.59+AM.png News and Insights old version - St. Bourke Transforms NorthShore Development in Camden County Patch Online Magazine June 15, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/06f49f51-2e61-47d9-a893-eb47a669b80a/Screen+Shot+2022-08-01+at+10.48.31+PM.png News and Insights old version - St. Bourke hired to manage development of final phase of Hamilton Mill-area community that was started before Great Recession by Curt Yeomans – Reporter, Gwinnett Daily Post Jun 8, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8ddd4148-5e06-4111-acb1-1d4b5db3c753/Screen+Shot+2022-10-03+at+10.17.18+PM.png News and Insights old version - St. Bourke Creates a Place to Call Home Through Placemaking by Carol Morgan – EIN Presswire Jun 7, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/022ac11c-0d4e-4efd-8946-bf1976b79dd7/Screen+Shot+2022-06-16+at+3.52.14+PM.png News and Insights old version - St. Bourke to complete three “zombie” developments in Buford and Douglasville by John Yellig – Reporter, Atlanta Agent Magazine Jun 8, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ac29baec-7c1d-4fa0-b7d3-23f93e55cc86/Screen+Shot+2022-06-16+at+3.48.51+PM.png News and Insights old version - Years after Great Recession, real estate firms to resurrect 'zombie' projects By Tyler Wilkins – Reporter, Atlanta Business Chronicle Jun 1, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9d21e7ba-e517-4628-a0bb-e7ac4fc04f60/Screen+Shot+2022-06-01+at+6.01.46+PM.png News and Insights old version - Gwinnett County, exurbs dominate first-quarter new-home market by John Yellig - Reporter, Atlanta Agent Magazine June 01, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/bea27b0c-72a4-4903-a4ef-72aa4dada9ab/MARKET+REPORT+Atlanta+1Q2022.jpg News and Insights old version - Our Market reports St. Bourke’s dedicated research team exhaustively monitors the housing market and provides unique analysis to help you make more informed investment and development decisions. Click here to access our latest market reports or request custom reports tailored to your project or portfolio. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/cc180224-ff94-4958-9227-479c20b8f986/ABC+article+04+2022.jpg News and Insights old version - Amid housing shortage, this firm is preparing for a blitz on its 2,900 exurban Atlanta homesites By Tyler Wilkins – Reporter, Atlanta Business Chronicle Apr 8, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3e9cf39a-3a99-4548-99d5-4f33a4043233/Atlanta+Business+Journal+article+03+2022.jpg News and Insights old version - As homes become unaffordable, buyers and renters look toward Atlanta's exurbs By Tyler Wilkins – Reporter, Atlanta Business Chronicle Mar 4, 2022 Read article https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/078136cb-fe25-4e11-a9e0-0efad540a51a/STBOURKE_WIN21-680.jpg News and Insights old version - Stacia Dangerfield joins St. Bourke St. Bourke, an Atlanta-based asset management and property development company, announces Stacia Dangerfield as a new planning and design associate. Dangerfield works with the planning and design vice president and manager on development projects in the St. Bourke portfolio. Click here to access the whole story. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/d2b9366a-b142-4def-bcd7-5de1b5c6009f/Screen+Shot+2022-01-05+at+3.08.05+PM.png News and Insights old version - Podcast Ben Simpson from St. Bourke joins the Atlanta Real Estate Forum studio to discuss land planning, company history and its contribution to placemaking in metro Atlanta. Listen here https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1615499568719-5DFIFMIV0T2XS00HHSSO/Screen+Shot+2021-03-11+at+4.51.26+PM.png News and Insights old version - $9.5M land deal sets stage for 100 new homes in Gwinnett County Atlanta Business Chronicle March 11, 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1608006093208-O0AMD5NCU0ODZ8PB8PZG/Screen+Shot+2020-12-14+at+11.17.13+PM.png News and Insights old version - 400 New homes and Townhomes Coming Tribune papers November 30, 2020 Our thoughts… https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1608006282035-GHB0HY5ENY3H34YWT5U2/Screen+Shot+2020-12-14+at+11.24.26+PM.png News and Insights old version - New Development to bring 566 Homes to Blythewood Columbia Regional Business ReportColumbia Regional Business Report October 26, 2020 Our thoughts… https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1611859693031-90QKGL4JZTMRSQZ7V2FF/Screen+Shot+2021-01-28+at+1.47.24+PM.png News and Insights old version - Tyler project points to resurgence in New Bern housing market New Bern Sun Journal May 17, 2019 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1611859908609-JO7ROEQM6CJC6W349YKR/Screen+Shot+2021-01-28+at+1.51.20+PM.png News and Insights old version - Tyler community opens for sale in New Bern, NC Tyler, Home on the Lake November 5, 2018 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1611860064023-RYC4EZFBKQ5U9SG08Z3Z/Screen+Shot+2021-01-28+at+1.54.06+PM.png News and Insights old version - Prominent downtown Atlanta block bought for almost $11 million Atlanta Business Journal August 10, 2018 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1623072525206-F3YRYWRTYMGQIVO3RQ9C/StB+affordable+housing+illo.png News and Insights old version - Key Takeaways: Affordable Housing Finance (AHF-April Forum) May 1, 2021 https://www.stbourke.com/termsconditionsprivacy daily 0.75 2021-03-22 https://www.stbourke.com/atlanta-2q2021-housing-market-analysis daily 0.75 2021-10-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632972831599-WU4VH41KBKERGJEHIGRE/AHMR+2Q2021.jpg Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632973236753-D8UANRSK80HE818ZT5PB/Screen+Shot+2021-09-29+at+11.38.57+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632973426325-ZHEFN7ZBHETFSS882W8X/Screen+Shot+2021-09-29+at+11.39.07+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632975011757-2JDS1NXF9VXOM91GPUKJ/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+12.09.10+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Georgia Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632975068422-Y0O9B0NOABJVXV0MMFGB/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+12.09.19+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Georgia Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632975174360-IH73JV2RWEUXJQB1DHJ2/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+12.12.27+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Total annualized starts grew by +28.9% over the last 12 months, the largest year-over-year growth rate since 2Q14. SFD starts jumped +26.1% over the last 12 months, reaching their highest level since 4Q07. SFA starts jumped +39.3% since 2Q20 and are currently at their highest level since 4Q06. We expect both SFD and SFA starts to continue this upward trend based on the unprecedented level of demand, however elevated construction costs and a rapidly-dwindling VDL supply have the potential to cap the number of starts each builder can produce as we move through 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632975254023-ENPDEA5SGPH9XL00Q54N/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+12.12.35+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Increasing land and materials costs continue to drive new home prices higher as builders increase their base costs to preserve their margins. While activity in the $200k-$250k range is fairly consistent with years past, there has been a dramatic uptick in starts for homes in the higher price tiers, most notably the $300k-$399k range. Starts in this price range jumped +62.3% since the end of 2Q20, and starts in the $400k-$450k range increase by +75.2% over the same period. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633086960004-5IC7XDXD04ODMWUFEVW7/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.13.16+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy New home closings followed in line with starts, posting strong growth figures since the end of 2Q20. Total annualized closings are up +18.8% year-over-year and have reached their highest level since 4Q07. Annualized SFD and SFA closings increased by +14.5% and +36.2%, respectively, over the last 12 months - a trend we expect to continue through the end of the year as builders work through their backlog and fulfill pre-sale orders from late 2020 and the first part of 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633087046645-3KI0GYRDV3DNNQY0RYSM/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.13.27+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy The “if you build it, they will come” mentality appears to be in full force throughout the Metro area as the significant increase in starts in the upper price tiers translated directly to a significant increase in closings. Closings dropped in all price tiers below the $250k mark, but increased by +46.0% in the $300k-$399k range and +45.6% in the $400k-$499k range. We expect pricing to cool slightly through the end of 2021 as construction costs and resale inventory return to more reasonable levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633087208047-7UW5KHXE6FT7TSG096NW/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.19.09+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Lot deliveries across Metro Atlanta increased by +14.6% since the end of 2Q20, adding a much-needed 20,400 lots to the market. Even this double-digit increase in lot production doesn’t fill the market’s supply-demand gap, however, as those 20,400 were immediately absorbed by builders. Atlanta needs to drastically increase lot development over the next 6-12 months to even scratch the surface of current demand for new housing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633088379755-XY0OERRUUNDYCMPQMFKY/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.19.20+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Of the 202,329 future lots in Metro Atlanta, nearly 83% of them are considered to be dormant, indicating that while those lots have been planned for future development, there has been no development, construction, or sales activity in the last 2+ years. Based on the alarmingly low inventory of VDLs in this market, it is possible we will see more of these dormant lots come back online over the next 12-18 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633087393236-9778CO9V9XCAGZ2E4523/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.22.31+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy SFD VDL inventory declined by -19.0% since the end of 2Q20, and there are just over 42,300 VDLs in the market (a huge majority of which are already spoken for by builders). Decreasing inventory combined with a significant spike in sales has driven Atlanta’s VDL supply down to just 20.6 months (a -35.6% drop from the end of 2Q20). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633087459534-5URQ2DS54L59EREY7XLT/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.22.42+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy SFA VDL inventory declined at almost the same rate as SFD inventory with overall inventory dropping by -19.0% over the last 12 months. The months’ supply for SFA VDLs dropped to just 15.0 months, a -39.8% decline from the end of 2Q20. We expect the supply of both SFD and SFA VDLs to decline so long as starts continue to drastically outpace deliveries. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633088474009-4X1SDQ0X7ZXQRUI2I3W6/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.40.32+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett County continues to lead the Metro area in housing starts with nearly 4,500 since the end of 2Q20, a +33.8% increase over the total number of starts in the previous 12 month period. Of the 23 counties comprising the Atlanta MSA, 21 of them experienced a double digit percentage increase in starts over this period. These figures reinforce the notion that home construction activity is increasing in all corners of the Metro Area instead of just the core “close-in” suburban counties of Cobb, Gwinnett, and Fulton as we’ve seen in the past. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633088581858-DYC8OZ3SCTT9I37IL8JR/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.40.43+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett tops the closings chart as well, thanks in large part to strong schools and excellent connectivity to the urban core. Closings in Gwinnett increased +31.7% over the last 12 months, making it one of 17 Atlanta counties that experienced double digit percentage growth in closings since the end of 2Q20. We anticipate that counties once considered secondary, such as Cherokee and Forsyth, will continue to account for an increasing number of home sales as land prices skyrocket and lot inventory dries up in closer-in counties like Gwinnett and Cobb. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633088721593-UYYZ8J00QJ4BRCHF19Q9/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.44.47+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy 15 of the Atlanta MSA’s 23 counties increased lot production since the end of 2Q20, led by Henry County’s +104.7% increase (+910 additional lots) and Cherokee County’s +69.0% increase (+812 additional lots). We expect that lot deliveries in heavily developed counties like Gwinnett, Cobb, and North Fulton to continue to dwindle due simply to the lack of suitable land for lot development in these counties. This will create gaps that those historically “secondary” counties like Cherokee, Henry, and Barrow are primed to fill just based on the sheer availability, and therefore more competitive pricing, of land in these submarkets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633088860199-SVWWEXX0CFVI2LMJ1HVB/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.44.59+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy The top performing submarket in the Metro Atlanta area over the last 12 months was South Fulton County, specifically in the sub-$250k price range. The $200k-$250k range has historically been the most popular amongst Atlanta residents, and it appears as that this trend will continue - at least until the lot inventory for sub-$250k homes completely dries up. Perhaps the most notable figure included above is the extremely low VDL supply in each of these top submarkets; 9 of the top 10 submarkets have less than a one-year supply of VDLs in their most popular price range. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632974323131-Y1ZSVAPNL8U732O7VV7L/Screen+Shot+2021-09-29+at+11.58.21+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632974470935-M5YGSMHC0Y1MKA4Y01ID/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+12.00.58+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1632974600583-196683XBR0W712XTE713/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+12.02.38+AM.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Atlanta: 2Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/national-2q2021-housing-market-analysis-copy daily 0.75 2022-02-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b3112474-8660-4109-ad6c-700b5aab852f/NHMR+YEAR+END+2021.jpg Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a65b9400-02cb-4c7a-8624-377a876f6992/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.26.58+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/59edf2ec-1872-4dfd-b27d-b9cfe25446ab/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.31.21+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2cdeacd0-3122-43fb-89e1-6ff4117f66b2/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.32.26+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Wells Fargo During 2021, ongoing supply chain and labor issues brought Builder Confidence down from the record-high levels established at the end of 2020. The index dropped as low as 75 in August but rebounded quickly during the fall and winter months as strong summer demand eased and builder pipelines relaxed. Builder Confidence ended the year at 83, and we expect continued volatility in this index over the coming months given that solutions to supply chain and labor issues are still being determined. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e4ad0ae3-94d1-433b-a7d1-0a4f11053d51/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.35.38+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau It’s important to remember that the -10.9% decline in housing starts over 2021 is not a reflection of diminishing demand, rather a result of builders intentionally limiting their starts and new home sales for reasons ranging from lot inventory preservation to limited availability of construction materials with which to build new homes. We expect that starts will continue to lag demand (and need) for the foreseeable future given ongoing supply chain, labor, and inventory issues, however we anticipate that persistent demand will push annual starts higher than what we saw in 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9a9f2505-c5f9-41a7-9bf9-5a2c8dcd0033/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.37.22+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau The first three months of 2021 set records for new single-family home completions as builders began delivering new homes ordered during 2020’s buying frenzy. Completions declined after Q1, however, as supply chain issues made essential construction materials hard to come by and extended construction times between 3-6 months. It’s important to note that completions remained above the 20-year average for the entirety of 2021, and we expect completions to remain elevated through 2022 given the substantial backlog that most builders are still facing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e902eb52-307f-48d8-b0a6-d86b9d4b8ef0/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.38.13+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau New single-family home sales returned to more normal levels in 2021 as compared to 2020 with annual sales declining by -14.0% over tthe last 12 months. This backslide in new home sales is a result of increasing affordability concerns, a lack of finished home sites suitable for new home construction, and the intentional restriction of monthly sales by builders. We expect that new home sales will continue to be impacted by inventory and pricing issues through 2022 but remain relatively high based on continued demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/cfa42f6d-c8d3-45bb-8e20-5471b34d8982/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.39.14+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Homebuilders Before nose-diving in December, the median sale price for new homes was on track to increase by +14.1% during 2021. New home price growth is being driven largely by supply chain and material pricing issues, which are adding more than $35,000 to the base cost of the average new home, as well as continued demand from potential home-buyers. With no solution in hand for these concerns, we expect new home prices to rebound from the low December figure and continue their upward climb. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5ae73b01-a927-4bad-b755-58cf69265c24/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.40.00+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors The median sale price for existing homes increased by +14.9% during 2021, the largest single-year increase ever recorded. High prices are being driven mostly by the extremely low supply of existing homes available to purchase, and while we expect that the median sale price for existing homes will continue to increase through 2022, recent data indicates that the rate of growth will return to more normal levels as COVID-19 concerns ease and additional inventory comes online. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6fddaff9-6961-45e5-8a43-ed39af494b71/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.40.53+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Standard & Poor’s The Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased by +17.3% over the 12-month period from December 2020 to November 2021 (most recent data available), driven by low inventory of both new and existing homes and increasing construction costs for new homes. While we expect the Home Price Index to continue its upward climb through 2022, we anticipate that the rate of growth will return to more normal levels as additional inventory is added and supply chain concerns are alleviated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0b68ba6b-b038-4b3d-a68d-77f344406d9e/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.41.36+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability dropped steadily through the first half of 2021 before leveling out in the second half of the year, ending November (most recent data available) -14.3% lower than December 2020 levels. Housing Affordability will continue to be a concern so long as inflation and home price growth continue to outpace wage growth. Declining affordability has the heaviest implications for the first time and first move-up homebuyer segments, which combined to account for the majority of home sales. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/383afc3b-0995-4ce8-9b08-d1001f4bf278/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.43.05+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Rising prices, declining affordability, and restricted monthly sales helped move the New Home Supply closer to normal levels during 2021, increasing by +57.9% over the last 12 months. Steady demand will likely keep the supply of new homes near or below the 8-month benchmark during 2022, especially in the peak spring and summer selling seasons, but easing supply chain concerns and more moderate price growth should work to keep supply levels above the historic lows established in 2020. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7c15b61e-d358-4e21-aad0-b6c5d3fecb72/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.44.04+PM.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors The existing home supply declined further in 2021, finishing the year at a record-low level of just 1.8 months. Ongoing concerns around COVID-19 infections have suppressed additional homes from coming on the market, and the combination of high prices and low inventory has made it more attractive to stay in place and refinance rather than purchase a new home for many prospective buyers. Although we expect existing home supply to remain well below long-term levels for the foreseeable future, we anticipate that it will rebound above these historically low levels during 2022. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Year-End: 2021 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/personal-page daily 0.75 53926-12-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1617932094660-0ESYCP23M9PW3GANR0HX/STBOURKE_OFFICE21-397.jpg PERSONAL PAGE https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1617932126062-YDVRSVD3BS827757CTY8/CDR_8878.jpg PERSONAL PAGE https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1617932153863-A9GASDY8FR7ICIZDPBNT/STBOURKE_SIERRACREEK-439.jpg PERSONAL PAGE https://www.stbourke.com/national-3q2021-housing-market-analysis-copy-copy daily 0.75 2022-01-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/93001c0f-8057-4c04-a848-ab55d91bb507/NHMR+3Q2021.jpg National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2c83b811-25d9-4ef2-be76-ef0b2b7a6c26/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.12.21+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/80e76c91-fd48-4f80-bebe-ff4f5f0ab8c6/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.13.12+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9b2bddb6-0814-48d7-bdfa-c2a49a1e8129/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.14.35+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Wells Fargo Builder Confidence remains below the peak established late last year due namely to persistent supply chain and construction labor issues, which are contributing to extended delivery times in nearly every market. Additionally, builders are also contending with growing concerns around affordability based on the unprecedented growth of both new and existing home prices over the last 12-18 months (detailed further on the following page). Given that there is no simple solution to the supply chain, labor, and affordability issues that builders are combatting, we expect Builder Confidence to remain in the high-70’s to low-80’s range through the end of 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7f0aab34-b6c3-4b1c-9700-e6cebc54b38b/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.16.21+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Single-family housing starts declined through 3Q21 and are currently -7% below where they were a year ago. Context here is critical, however; starts have not declined due to a lack of demand, rather builders are being forced to intentionally limit their starts due to persistent supply chain issues, high materials costs, and extensive pre-order backlogs that remain from the buying frenzy that followed last year’s strict lockdowns. We expect starts to remain intentionally stifled until building supplies are more consistently available, but even then builders will be combatting what is being called “the worst lot shortage in history,” which has the potential to limit starts further. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7be47fe2-c5bd-4523-bae3-bce556b625b6/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.18.32+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau New home completions rebounded above the 20-year average in 3Q21 after declining steadily since the beginning on the year. When builders restrict their starts, they are effectively restricting their completions as well. Through the end of the year, we expect completions to remain closer to the long-term average than they were heading into the Spring months given suppressed starts levels and extended construction timeframes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/af51f284-cc76-4590-9a25-3305898f9def/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.19.26+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau New home sales reached a six-month high at the end of September, increasing by +17% during 3Q21. While new home sales are down more than -17% from levels seen 12 months ago, it’s important to remember that the level of activity seen in the second half of 2020 was significantly above “normal” levels and is not necessarily an appropriate measuring stick for current activity. We expect sales activity to remain above long-term average levels based on the continued demand for housing combined with a continued shortage of new and spec housing inventory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/65179dcd-fd86-4038-8a71-e1b1ac52818a/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.20.20+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Homebuilders In 3Q21, new home prices continued to increase at an unprecedented rate, growing by +9% since 2Q21 and +19% over the last 12 months. Increased construction costs, high land prices, and extremely limited finished home inventory are the driving factors behind this extreme price growth, and we expect new home prices to continue to climb through the end of the year and into 2022, although perhaps not at such an accelerated rate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3abfdcc6-7c0c-4710-a8a4-acc31a48ac2b/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.21.07+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Unlike new home prices, existing home prices actually decreased slightly during 3Q21. Despite this recent dip, 3Q21 existing home prices were still +17% higher than levels seen 12 months prior. Demand is still strong, although increasing mortgage rates and skyrocketing prices have worked to reduce the number of active buyers in the market over the last several months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/d578a845-20b1-449e-9a6a-86798e127c81/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.22.00+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Standard & Poor’s The Case-Shiller Home Price Index reflects what we saw on the previous page regarding new home pricing - low supply, strong demand, and increased builder costs have driven home prices upward at an alarming rate. The Home Price Index has increased by +13% thus far in 2021, compared to 10% growth during the entirety of 2020. Based on strong demand and low supply levels, we expect the Home Price Index to continue its upward trajectory through the end of the year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/36c1fbc8-57e6-478b-a90f-efad0e7cba3a/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.22.43+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Housing affordability remained relatively steady through 3Q21 after dropping steeply in the first half of the year. Skyrocketing home prices, discussed on the previous page and to the left, combined with increasing mortgage interest rates have driven driven the housing affordability index down to levels not seen since 2008. We expect affordability levels to rebound slightly from current levels, however affordability will remain a concern so long as home price growth continues to accelerate. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5ad65ee2-e830-43d2-be33-3b4090e20a2f/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.23.44+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau New home supply dipped slightly in September following five straight months of increases and currently stands at 5.7 months - well below what is considered a “normal” market. Supply remains low due to several factors, namely persistent demand from homebuyers, extended home construction times, and extensive builder backlogs. Because there is no definitive solution in sight for the above challenges, we expect supply to remain well below “normal” levels through the end of this year and into 2022. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9dcd9802-1008-4c91-b3d7-be0bbafb186a/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.24.42+PM.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Existing home supply has been relatively steady over the last year and currently stands at just 2.4 months (normal market = 5 months). Lingering seller concerns around the transmission of COVID, refinancing opportunities for potential sellers, and the surge of institutional homebuyers into the market have all contributed to keeping existing home inventory near all-time low levels. We anticipate that this trend will continue through the end of 2021, but start to return to more normal levels during 2022. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png National 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/atlanta-3q2021-housing-market-analysis-copy-1 daily 0.75 2022-01-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2101cf4b-50cf-4b7a-97c3-aaa769c966c5/AHMR+3Q2021.jpg Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3e674ec5-7411-47e9-88b4-24f185264038/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.42.32+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/83c5982f-d6e8-4d2a-aea1-12394f9b2733/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.43.15+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0f283739-f25f-46e0-bd80-346dd5d94a1c/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.44.15+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/11e4a155-8212-443a-839d-7838d5b040c3/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.44.48+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e8d22d58-470b-4127-ab9c-433a4dd23446/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.46.14+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy 12 months, eclipsing the 30,000 mark for just the second time since 2007. Single-family detached (SFD) starts grew by nearly +21% over the last 12 months as builders ramped up production to meet the seemingly infinite demand for new homes. Single-family attached (SFA) starts have exploded in recent months, increasing by +45% since the end of 3Q20. SFA product has become more popular for builders in this current environment of increased costs and extended construction times, allowing them to maximize project density and preserve their bottom line. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5ca62f9a-eaa0-4584-9995-1ee81379c5f7/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.46.47+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Increasing land and materials costs continue to push new home prices higher. As shown in the graph above, there has been a significant shift in new home prices over the last 3 years; in recent years, the level of activty across the $200K-$400k price segments was fairly consistent, but that has shifted dramatically over the last 12 months. Home starts in the sub-$250K price segment decreased by nearly -40% over the last 12 months, as compared to +57% and +99% increases in the $300K-$399K and $400K-$499K segments, respectively. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/13410075-4a9b-445a-b5f1-26681f2e638b/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.48.04+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Annualized housing starts increased by +13% during 3Q21, reaching the highest level since mid-2008. SFD home closings increased by a solid +9% over this period, evidence of the sustained increase in demand for new housing. SFA closings grew by nearly +30% over the same period, further supporting the notion that both builders and homebuyers are becoming increasingly attracted to attached housing product given the concerns arounding supply and affordability. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/83f8951b-8598-4d2f-91f5-09342586173a/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.49.00+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As discussed previously in regards to housing starts, new home closings have undergone a dramatic shift over the last 12 months as builders increase homes’ base prices in an effort to preserve their diminshing margins. Closings in the sub-$250K price segment decreased by nearly -35%, whereas homes in the $300K-$399K and $400K-$499K price segments increased by +40% and +55%, respectively. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9ca92c9d-02ee-411c-9b46-6e1b8a372b89/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.49.58+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As shown in the graph above, annual lot deliveries ramped up significantly during 3Q21 as developers & builders scrambled to bring new lots online and take advantage of elevated demand. SFD lot deliveries in the Atlanta market increased by +31% over the last 12 months, eclipsing +15,000 new lots for the first time since 2008. SFA starts increased more modestly (+4%) over the same period and are currently hovering near late-2008 levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/be9ec412-41a4-42b0-ae83-58c6d099674f/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.50.57+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Most of Atlanta’s future lots (83%) fall into the Dormant category, meaning that there was been no development or new home construction activity in the last 24 months; it’s estimated that as many as one-third of these Dormant lots will never actually come on-line. There are currently more than 35,000 lots in active development, the majority of which are in the Excavating phase. These 35,000+ lots will likely be delivered in the next 6-12 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/00d5567a-ea0c-46bf-ad0c-4ae309ab6b8e/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.51.55+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Both SFD inventory and supply levels continued their downward trajectory in 3Q21. VDL inventory has dropped below 40,000 lots, and supply fell to just 20 months (-18% since 3Q20). Despite the significant increase in lot development in recent months, starts and sales continue to outpace lot deliveries by a wide margin, meaning that supply issues in the Atlanta market won’t disappear any time soon. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/aebed946-8685-4549-87f8-f51dfaa7b7ca/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.52.49+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy SFA VDL inventory and supply decreased during 3Q21, dropping -25% and -48%, respectively, over the last 12 months. Increased demand for attached housing combined with a minimal increase in attached lot development has pushed current supply levels to just 12 months, the lowest level since early 2003 when attached home production was essentially a non-factor in the Atlanta market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4e1ad987-5556-4405-9656-ad9facd00480/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.54.09+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett County continues to lead the Metro area in housing starts, followed by South Fulton, Cherokee, Forsyth, and Dekalb counties. South Fulton, Cherokee, and Forsyth are relative newcomers to the top rankings, and have exploded over the last 12-24 months because they still have what some other counties do not - lots. 19 of Metro Atlanta’s 24 counties experienced a double digit percentage increase in housing starts over the last 12 months, led by Bartow (+71%), Fayette (+51%), and Spalding (+55%) counties. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/122d1b7c-0033-456a-b47d-92c8987d90f0/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.54.54+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy No surprise here, but Gwinnett County leads the Atlanta market in new home closings as well with Cherokee, Forsyth, South Fulton, and Cobb counties rounding out the top 5. With the exception of Gwinnett and Cobb counties, which have long been the darlings of new home construction in Atlanta, we are seeing a surge of new home construction and closings in counties that have historically been overlooked by builders and land developers. As VDL inventory in “in-town” submarkets continues to plummet, these “secondary” submarkets will draw more and more attention from builders and perspective homebuyers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/94d2f85a-5d5e-40c6-9b40-4b69887c4481/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.55.58+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As with Starts and Closings, Gwinnett County led the Atlanta market in annualized lot deliveries in 3Q21, increasing lot production by +8% over the last 12 months. The real story here is Cherokee and Henry counties, however, which increased lot production by +96% and +84%, respectively, since the end of 3Q20. 15 of Metro Atlanta’s 23 counties experienced a double digit percentage increase in lot production over the last 12 months, with counties farthest from the city center experiencing the most growth; this is evidence that builders are scrambling to put down lots wherever they can and more homebuyers are now willing to consider submarkets once considers too fr from the city center to be viable for mass residential development. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a501e2cc-0e8d-472f-96df-ba803804acf2/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.56.57+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4dbb6eb8-367c-47ff-90a1-5b826aef73d3/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.58.15+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/665819e4-50ef-4ed0-8525-db9a340bcd65/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+8.00.01+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/54d830d2-bf93-413a-944a-1a862fff3dab/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+8.00.48+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Atlanta: 3Q2021 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/year-end-2021-atlanta-housing-market-analysis daily 0.75 2022-02-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/18535ec8-253a-4331-859b-5dc78cccde9d/AHMR+YEAR+END+2021.jpg Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5c6dd069-c0c8-4f4f-bbb3-96ac3d942c84/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.51.17+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/30e1b544-f6e4-41ba-9324-c8ef0f103ec3/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.51.44+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2cdeacd0-3122-43fb-89e1-6ff4117f66b2/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.32.26+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Wells Fargo During 2021, ongoing supply chain and labor issues brought Builder Confidence down from the record-high levels established at the end of 2020. The index dropped as low as 75 in August but rebounded quickly during the fall and winter months as strong summer demand eased and builder pipelines relaxed. Builder Confidence ended the year at 83, and we expect continued volatility in this index over the coming months given that solutions to supply chain and labor issues are still being determined. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e4ad0ae3-94d1-433b-a7d1-0a4f11053d51/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.35.38+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau It’s important to remember that the -10.9% decline in housing starts over 2021 is not a reflection of diminishing demand, rather a result of builders intentionally limiting their starts and new home sales for reasons ranging from lot inventory preservation to limited availability of construction materials with which to build new homes. We expect that starts will continue to lag demand (and need) for the foreseeable future given ongoing supply chain, labor, and inventory issues, however we anticipate that persistent demand will push annual starts higher than what we saw in 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9a9f2505-c5f9-41a7-9bf9-5a2c8dcd0033/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.37.22+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau The first three months of 2021 set records for new single-family home completions as builders began delivering new homes ordered during 2020’s buying frenzy. Completions declined after Q1, however, as supply chain issues made essential construction materials hard to come by and extended construction times between 3-6 months. It’s important to note that completions remained above the 20-year average for the entirety of 2021, and we expect completions to remain elevated through 2022 given the substantial backlog that most builders are still facing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e902eb52-307f-48d8-b0a6-d86b9d4b8ef0/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.38.13+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau New single-family home sales returned to more normal levels in 2021 as compared to 2020 with annual sales declining by -14.0% over tthe last 12 months. This backslide in new home sales is a result of increasing affordability concerns, a lack of finished home sites suitable for new home construction, and the intentional restriction of monthly sales by builders. We expect that new home sales will continue to be impacted by inventory and pricing issues through 2022 but remain relatively high based on continued demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/cfa42f6d-c8d3-45bb-8e20-5471b34d8982/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.39.14+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Homebuilders Before nose-diving in December, the median sale price for new homes was on track to increase by +14.1% during 2021. New home price growth is being driven largely by supply chain and material pricing issues, which are adding more than $35,000 to the base cost of the average new home, as well as continued demand from potential home-buyers. With no solution in hand for these concerns, we expect new home prices to rebound from the low December figure and continue their upward climb. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5ae73b01-a927-4bad-b755-58cf69265c24/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.40.00+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors The median sale price for existing homes increased by +14.9% during 2021, the largest single-year increase ever recorded. High prices are being driven mostly by the extremely low supply of existing homes available to purchase, and while we expect that the median sale price for existing homes will continue to increase through 2022, recent data indicates that the rate of growth will return to more normal levels as COVID-19 concerns ease and additional inventory comes online. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6fddaff9-6961-45e5-8a43-ed39af494b71/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.40.53+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Standard & Poor’s The Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased by +17.3% over the 12-month period from December 2020 to November 2021 (most recent data available), driven by low inventory of both new and existing homes and increasing construction costs for new homes. While we expect the Home Price Index to continue its upward climb through 2022, we anticipate that the rate of growth will return to more normal levels as additional inventory is added and supply chain concerns are alleviated. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0b68ba6b-b038-4b3d-a68d-77f344406d9e/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.41.36+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability dropped steadily through the first half of 2021 before leveling out in the second half of the year, ending November (most recent data available) -14.3% lower than December 2020 levels. Housing Affordability will continue to be a concern so long as inflation and home price growth continue to outpace wage growth. Declining affordability has the heaviest implications for the first time and first move-up homebuyer segments, which combined to account for the majority of home sales. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/383afc3b-0995-4ce8-9b08-d1001f4bf278/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.43.05+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Rising prices, declining affordability, and restricted monthly sales helped move the New Home Supply closer to normal levels during 2021, increasing by +57.9% over the last 12 months. Steady demand will likely keep the supply of new homes near or below the 8-month benchmark during 2022, especially in the peak spring and summer selling seasons, but easing supply chain concerns and more moderate price growth should work to keep supply levels above the historic lows established in 2020. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7c15b61e-d358-4e21-aad0-b6c5d3fecb72/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.44.04+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors The existing home supply declined further in 2021, finishing the year at a record-low level of just 1.8 months. Ongoing concerns around COVID-19 infections have suppressed additional homes from coming on the market, and the combination of high prices and low inventory has made it more attractive to stay in place and refinance rather than purchase a new home for many prospective buyers. Although we expect existing home supply to remain well below long-term levels for the foreseeable future, we anticipate that it will rebound above these historically low levels during 2022. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/year-end-2021-atlanta-housing-market-analysis2 daily 0.75 2022-02-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2101cf4b-50cf-4b7a-97c3-aaa769c966c5/AHMR+3Q2021.jpg Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a5d7e9ef-6a51-424c-987f-da9b301e2f9e/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.56.51+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/61a6b2f3-0f00-4c42-8cf4-a8787be48b52/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.57.42+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8fa2a0d7-68f5-4db9-9d79-aab6b439f090/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.58.41+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a6252193-8007-4cdf-86e7-6eb7a17496a9/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+5.59.18+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/11bb3e4d-e61b-41b2-9cea-77bff8c70408/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+6.01.07+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy 12 months, eclipsing the 30,000 mark for just the second time since 2007. Single-family detached (SFD) starts grew by nearly +21% over the last 12 months as builders ramped up production to meet the seemingly infinite demand for new homes. Single-family attached (SFA) starts have exploded in recent months, increasing by +45% since the end of 3Q20. SFA product has become more popular for builders in this current environment of increased costs and extended construction times, allowing them to maximize project density and preserve their bottom line. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5f876706-7697-410e-ad17-71c9d26ff829/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.32.41+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Increasing land and construction costs continue to drive new home price growth in the Atlanta market. As shown above, there has been a considerable shift to the higher price tiers over the last 4 years. In 2018, only 45.7% of new homes started fell into the $300K+ price tiers; by the end of 2021, however, this figure had climbed to 71.2%. Over the last 4 years, there has been an +85.1% increase in the number of new homes started at or above the $300K level and a -36.9% decrease in the number of new homes started below the $300K level. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c573aeae-fccb-4a74-b153-5d0ddc40e61c/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.35.24+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Sustained supply chain, skilled labor, and inventory issues slowed the acceleration of new home closings in 2021 to +7.0% in 2021, compared to +12.5% growth during 2020; the 29,170 new home closings over the last 12 months represent the highest annual total since 2007. SFD and SFA closings increased by +3.7% and +19.2%, respectively, over the last 12 months – further evidence of the rising popularity of attached housing due to land and pricing constraints in the Atlanta market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9b030868-4cfa-4142-ad85-2016ce1f383b/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.36.22+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy New home closings’ gradual shift to the upper price tiers has been accelerated over the last 12-24 months due to increasing land and construction costs. New home closings below the $300K price tier declined by -26.7% during 2021 as compared to 2020. The shift away from new homes below the $300K level is concerning for the Atlanta market given that median income growth has not kept pace with home price growth, meaning that an increasing number of potential buyers are being priced out of the market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3d99eb29-ee0f-4eab-9c8d-6fe5bddb91f4/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.37.15+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Lot development ramped up significantly in 2021 with overall lot production increasing by +36.1% (+42.7% increase in SFD and +20.3% increase in SFA lot deliveries). While more than 16,000 new lots were delivered in the Atlanta market in 2021 (highest level since 2007), it’s important to remember that most of these lots were spoken for by builders prior to being developed, so in reality these lot deliveries did very little to improve the inventory and supply levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4a9fc4f2-12f4-4c1c-99ed-d3f8aaad5122/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.38.34+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Most of Atlanta’s future lots fall into the Dormant category, meaning that there has been no development or new construction activity in the last 24 months. It is estimated that as many as one-third of these lots will never come on-line. There are currently more than 35,000 lots in active development which are expected to deliver in the next 6-18 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8c38001a-b9ad-4d34-b64a-0739d3bc2a9c/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.39.40+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy SFD lot inventory and supply levels declined steadily throughout 2021. Extended development times and strong demand drained the SFD lot inventory to just over 40,500 lots – the lowest level since Metrostudy began tracking this metric in 2000. Metro Atlanta’s supply of SFD lots declined by -19.4% during 2021 to just 21.6 months, the lowest level since 2005. Despite the increase in lot development, we expect inventory and supply metrics to remain below “healthy” levels until the margin between demand and deliveries is more balanced. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/d01a420b-3e8f-4731-9675-27aafe174144/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.40.36+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As with SFD lots, SFA lot inventory and supply declined significantly during 2021, decreasing by -16.7% and -32.8%, respectively. Despite the +20.3% uptick in SFA lot deliveries, inventory still dropped to its lowest level since 2004. Surging demand for attached product has driven Metro Atlanta’s SFA lot supply down to just 13.7 months, a low not seen since 2002. Given that SFA closings outpaced SFA lot deliveries by more than 20%, we expect SFA lot inventory and supply to remain near record-low levels.. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/12e3babd-1505-464d-acfc-6af56d70881c/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.47.49+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett County continues to lead the Metro Atlanta area in housing starts, followed by Cherokee, Forsyth, Henry, and Dekalb counties. Growth in counties like Cherokee, Forsyth, and Henry, which have historically been considered secondary submarkets, has accelerated in the last 18-24 months and is being driven by a number of factors including the availability (and therefore lower price) of residential land and the emergence of the Work from Home movement, which is allowing people to live in areas farther from traditional employment centers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/f89319e6-fd5c-4eca-a5a4-d42147af1cd6/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.48.54+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy The closing leader list closely resembles the starts leader list, with Gwinnett County leading the pack at 3,627 annual new home closings, a +26.3% increase over 2020 closings. Cherokee, Forsyth, Dekalb, and South Fulton counties round out the top 5, combining for an additional +7,300 new home closings during 2021. Other counties that had significant increases in new home closings over the last 12 months include Hall (+20.9%), Bartow (+40.7%), Jackson (+20.2%), Newton (+21.9%), Spalding (+70.7) and Walton (+20.7%). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b5577512-908a-4e25-9af6-618d0bfacf71/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.50.02+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Lot deliveries increased significantly in 2021 with 16 of Metro Atlanta’s 23 counties posting double digit percentage increases over the last 12 months (3 of those 16 were triple digit increases). Gwinnett County led the Metro area in lot deliveries with 4,527, a +47.8% increase over lot deliveries in 2020. Cherokee (+10.7%), Henry (+93.6%), Hall (+95.6%), and Cobb (+33.0%) counties rounded out the top five performers, delivering a combined 6,442 lots during 2021. We expect lot deliveries to increase across the Metro area in 2022, especially in those once-secondary submarkets where land suitable for residential development is more readily available. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a501e2cc-0e8d-472f-96df-ba803804acf2/Screen+Shot+2022-01-03+at+7.56.57+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e8ed59ef-a41c-47da-b458-2e478a8deefe/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.52.13+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2deb2804-8522-455f-b853-2f4debc96e02/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.53.21+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7c2cc27f-4954-4e67-9135-65e385166bd8/Screen+Shot+2022-02-03+at+9.54.06+PM.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Year-End: 2021 Atlanta Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/atlanta-1q2022-housing-market-analysis daily 0.75 2022-05-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/87763765-7d42-47f2-baf4-aac086d09111/MARKET+REPORT+Atlanta+1Q2022.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/24028e7c-b54b-499d-be56-2c506cb4b672/Screen+Shot+2022-05-11+at+12.59.39+PM.png Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0457a15e-c978-4dbc-b4aa-b0af4c7e620e/Screen+Shot+2022-05-11+at+1.00.12+PM.png Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b5b57693-b3c6-4c80-9b6e-d36d6c857d7d/active+listings+total.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/50e0ae37-69be-4b6e-bde0-2121972aa4c4/Active+listings+Months+supply.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/83dcf695-6d16-4693-ba9a-ec7e336e9a5c/Housing+Starts+Total.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Ongoing material availability, labor shortage, and lot inventory issues resulted in modest declines for both total and single-family detached (SFD) housing starts in Q1. Total starts decreased -3.1% from the end of December but remain relatively unchanged from their position 12 months ago (-1.5% decline); SFD housing starts are down -4.2% and -4.7% over those same time periods. While SFA starts declined slightly from the end of Q4 (-.7%), they’re up +14.2% from the end of Q1 2021. SFA starts will continue to comprise a growing share of total starts moving foward as SFA units often offer a lower-cost path to homeownership as compared to traditional SFD homes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/d45efa52-f225-4d8c-aef3-d4ba3683a521/Housing+Starts+By+Price+Range.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy The Atlanta market was officially deemed “unaffordable” by the Federal Reserve Bank after analyzing home prices against median household income. Home price growth continues to accelerate across the Atlanta market due to extremely low inventory, (intentionally) limited housing starts, and extended construction times. The $300K-$399K segment continues to be the dominant price range for new homes in the Atlanta market, however we are seeing the higher price tiers ($400K+) account for a growing share of starts. 12 months ago, homes above $400K comprised 22.6% of the market; in Q1, homes above $400K comprised 40.6% of the market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6e07d08f-36c1-42b9-aceb-c37a96b0fa5c/New+Homes+Closings+Total.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Both total and SFD new home closings declined during Q1, likely due in part to the seasonal slowdown in new home construction during the winter months due to holidays and inclement weather. Total closings declined by -3.3% from the end of December and have fallen -3.1% over the last 12 months, and SFD closings decreased by -4.4% and -6.4% over those same time periods. SFA closings, however, went the opposite direction in Q1; SFA closings increased slightly from the end of December (+.2%) but are up +8.5% compared to Q1 2021. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7a838833-7b2b-40c4-90d7-b838962383d7/New+Homes+Closings+slide+2.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy The $300K-$399K segment was the dominant price range for new home closings in Q1, comprising 35.4% of all new home sales. As with starts, closings have shifted to the higher price tiers over the last year, and the market share of homes above $400K increased from 53.3% to 72.0% over the last 12 months. Price growth might ease as the year progresses but is expected to remain well above long-term average levels due to significant increases in home construction costs and an extremely low inventory of homes that buyers are competing for. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a779cc77-7c49-4f34-868a-f4fc80c21d87/Lot+Deliveries-+Total.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy While both total and SFD lot deliveries declined slightly during Q1 as compared to the end of December, both metrics have made significant gains over the last 12 months, increasing by +19.1% and +23.6% respectively. Given the increase in demand for attached housing, SFA lot development has received a strong boost. Despite a model Q1 gain (+0.2%), SFA lot deliveries have increased by +8.4% over the last 12 month period. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6655eceb-bc5a-486e-9d9e-59b5b4159ed1/Lots+in+development.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy While most (81.3%) of Atlanta’s future lots remain in a dormant state, we are beginning to see evidence of meaningful movement in the region’s lot development pipeline with more than 2,500 lots transitioning from “dormant” to “active development” in Q1. Since the end of December, the share of lots in “stakes in” stage declined from 13% to 7%, and the share of lots in the Excavating stage grew from 46% to 55%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8120ea3a-6343-4a23-ad31-7f51d7307399/Inventory+%26+Supply+SFD.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Arguably the most critical issue that the Atlanta housing market currently faces is a depleted lot inventory, which effectively places a cap on the number of new homes that can be constructed – fewer lots to build on translates directly to fewer new homes being built. SFD VDL inventory is down -5.7% from the end of December and has declined by -13.4% over the last 12 months. The months’ supply has also declined on a quarterly and annual basis (-1.9% and -9.0%) but took less of a hit given the corresponding drop in starts over those same time periods. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2c57d4be-14b1-471e-8ac7-1f06ae9feb46/Inventory+%26+Supply+SFA.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy SFA lot inventory and supply declined even more drastically than SFD with inventory levels declining -3.6% from the end of December and -16.7% since the end of Q1 2021. Demand for attached housing from both builders and buyers has skyrocketed over the last 12 months, and the months’ supply for attached lots fell -2.9% in Q1 and has decreased by -26.9% since Q1 2021. Considering that SFA lot deliveries increased by +8.4% and inventory levels still fell by -16.7% gives some additional perspective on how strong demand is for this product type. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/f374df72-8960-4ccd-ad74-a1e3e1ffb5c8/Starts+Leaders.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett County (4,031 annual starts) continues to lead the Metro area in housing starts and has commenced construction on approximately 1,800 more homes over the last 12 months as compared to the next most-active county, Cherokee (2,240 starts). Forsyth, Cobb, and DeKalb counties rounded out the top five in Q1, combining for 5,600 starts over the last 12 months. The most notable housing start movements since Q1 2021 include a +75.5% increase in Dawson County, a +51.5% increase in Bartow County, and a -45.8% decline in Clayton County. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b29a4d02-a194-4fb9-b9cc-fe81632264ca/Closings+Leaders.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Given its dominance in housing starts, it is no surprise that Gwinnett County also leads the Metro area in new home closings. Annualized home sales in Gwinnett eclipsed 4,000 in Q1, more than #2 Cherokee County (2,064) and #3 Forsyth County (1,972) combined; Dekalb and Cobb counties round out the top five in Q1. The most notable jumps in new home closings came from Spalding County (+44.7%) and Bartow County (+36.5%), whereas closings in both the Clayton County (-32.0%) and South Fulton County (-27.4%) submarkets contracted significantly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ce462461-ed15-4cc4-8a80-8565b22549a6/Lot+Delivery+Leaders.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As with starts and new home closings, Gwinnett County led Metro Atlanta in lot deliveries in Q1, increasing production by +32.4% to deliver an annualized 4,472 lots to the market. South Fulton, Henry, Cherokee, and Cobb counties filled out the top five and combined to add an annualized 6,023 lots. Of the 23 counties included in this analysis, 14 (60.9%) experienced double- or triple-digit increases to annual lot production in Q1, whereas 7 (30.4%) counties experienced double-digit decreases in production. Note that the majority of lots being delivered are spoken for by builders prior to the start of development, so these delivery increases aren’t necessarily improving supply. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/554a9c03-acce-48a5-95b7-afba8e107370/Townes+of+Auburn+in+Barrow+County.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Townes of Auburn in Barrow County (Image Credit: Rocklyn Homes) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/f00544ed-2d12-4f70-a43f-77e305bff812/Summerwind+in+Gwinnett+County.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Summerwind in Gwinnett County (Image Credit: BuzzBuzzHome.com) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ca3055f9-b280-4690-add6-60ed018c7e82/Screen+Shot+2022-05-11+at+1.25.05+PM.png Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy/Zonda https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0786e222-e4f6-4463-bb14-fd0f9b8c1c87/Map.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5a24d817-78d7-4981-83fb-faf68ac98522/Screen+Shot+2022-05-11+at+1.27.21+PM.png Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a02b4d86-4283-4f45-994c-78e94bb6b986/flowchart.jpg Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Atlanta: 1Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/1q2022-national-housing-market-analysis daily 0.75 2022-05-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/93001c0f-8057-4c04-a848-ab55d91bb507/NHMR+3Q2021.jpg 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a02b2a74-f1f4-4b59-9f1b-75e8574fcf77/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.15.43+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8a7315ff-f304-4aa1-8765-6f951800c2ce/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.16.21+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/905cfd8a-1298-4a48-81c7-4df873980386/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.17.23+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Wells Fargo Persistent concerns around supply chain disruptions, price increases, labor shortages, and depleted lot inventory continue to impact Builder Confidence. Despite solid buyer traffic, Builder Confidence dipped below 80 in Q1 to its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. In addition to increasing construction costs (+20% YoY) and interrupted supply chains, builders are now combatting increasing concerns around housing affordability and rising interest rates. Sustained demand will continue to keep Builder Confidence in positive territory (above 50 is considered positive), however the headwinds detailed above will likely keep Builder Confidence below the record-high levels established in 2020. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a441444a-23fa-4c7c-b5d6-33234e0025a2/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.18.05+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Annualized single-family housing starts were relatively unchanged during Q1, declining by just -0.25% from the end of 2021 and by -4.3% over the last 12 months. Despite the lack of consistency from one month to the next over the last 12-18 months, single-family starts remain well above the 20-year average and will remain at a comparatively high level given the sustained demand. Note that single-family starts would be consistently higher if homebuilders were less constrained by low inventory, pricing, materials availability, and skilled labor issues. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6e4d5f2a-3662-47bb-8166-6cab5a2869e7/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.18.57+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau After ending 2021 with positive momentum, annualized single-family housing completions dropped sharply in January but rebounded strongly in February through March. Over the last 12 months, the U.S. has completed just 1.0 million new homes; while breaking into seven figures is a certainly a move in the right direction, the current level is well below the estimated 1.5 million - 1.6 million new home completions that the U.S. needs each year just to keep pace with population growth and demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/709041fb-b56c-4a48-aa02-1beb66b8acad/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.19.40+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Annualized new single-family home sales declined modestly but steadily throughout Q1 due to a combination of rising prices, increasing interest rates, low supply, and (intentionally) limited housing starts and sales by homebuilders. With this gradual return to seasonality, we expect new home sales to rebound in the Spring and Summer months although it is very likely that the aforementioned factors will continue to keep new home sales in check over the coming months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4aa390ea-36c9-4a3a-9304-f13d252a1493/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.20.22+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Homebuilders New home sales prices continued their upward trajectory through Q1. Median home prices increased by +6.5% during Q1 and have increased by +21.4% over the last 12 months. When you consider that inflation has risen to 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981, and personal income decreased by -11.6% over that same 12-month period, it’s easy to understand why affordability has become a top concern for buyers, builders, and community leaders across the country. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c84bbf47-b4f1-42d6-8ade-58d6cad1600b/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.20.54+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Median existing home sale prices increased in line with new home sale prices during Q1, growing by +5.7% since the beginning of the year and by +15.2% over the last 12 months. Existing home sale prices remain at record high due largely to the extremely low inventory level, which remains significantly below the long-term average (more on the following page). We expect price growth acceleration to improve gradually over the coming months as demand responds to record-high prices. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8515efe4-0342-4b7d-abac-8c97f48ee8b1/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.21.44+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau New home supply increased modestly through Q1 and currently stands at 6.4 months, approximately -20% below “normal” market levels. It should be noted that this increase in supply is not necessarily an indication that homebuilders added additional spec homes to their inventories; inventory levels of available new homes remained relatively steady in Q1, so this increase in supply is a result of a pullback in demand/sales rather than an actual increase in inventory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6cfb93e0-febf-4d33-a9aa-a2d12021862a/Screen+Shot+2022-05-05+at+8.22.42+PM.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Existing home supply improved slightly in Q1, breaking the 2.0-month threshold for the first time since November. Supply remains well below the 20-year average (6 months), and while we do expect supply levels to improve in the coming months as prices and interest rates continue to negatively impact demand, it is very likely that they will remain below the historical average for the remainder of the year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png 1Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/atlanta-2q2022-housing-market-analysis-copy daily 0.75 2022-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a0aebfb0-e4b3-4081-886f-57cb51b4dad1/MARKET+REPORT+Atlanta+2Q2022.jpg Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0da9a7ab-e68f-4d5a-ade8-780af40a47dd/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+8.57.43+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5094bac1-f5d5-4c1e-8da5-7b0b53d86c7c/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+8.58.19+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/38270cb0-22e9-4834-8928-3d46eba5e491/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.00.27+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5b8b7ea3-10fd-4608-b38c-ccbbe980d7b6/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+8.59.55+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1b69268b-dc0e-4b75-b908-c22aae494694/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.01.39+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Total starts activity fell during Q2 as builders reacted to waning demand and high construction costs. Detached and attached housing starts declined by -9.1% and -7.3%, respectively, during Q2 and are down -19.6% and -5.3% from 12 months ago. Builders have increasingly turned toward attached product as a way to maximize project density and offer homes at price points attainable to a larger percentage of the population. Rising interest rates, high housing costs propped up by a critically low inventory of available homes, and continued labor and supply chain issues will likely lead to a continued pullback from builders through the end of the year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/cd5c880e-0d57-4e23-90cd-835691511424/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.02.03+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy The number of housing starts fell for all price segments below $400K during Q2. Over the last 12 months, starts of homes below $250K have declined by -73.5%, homes below $300K by -61.1%, and homes below $400K by -40.4%. Housing starts for homes above $400K grew significantly over the same period, however; the number of starts for homes above $400K and $500K have increased by +46.3% and +57.8%, respectively, over the last 12 months. A cooling market could see a slight shift back towards the lower price tiers as the year progresses, but prices are likely to remain high (unattainable for households making less than $100k annually) given high land and construction costs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/73e4d87b-2c62-4f0f-83b6-d607cc6c466c/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.03.13+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As with starts, new home closings declined on both a quarterly and annual basis during Q2. Detached closings are down -4.5% from Q1 and -12.2% from 2Q21, and attached closings are down -4.3% and -9.9% over the same periods. The decline in new home closings is less about diminishing demand for housing and more about Atlanta’s skyrocketing home prices; with a median home price of $435K (across both new & existing home sales) and a median household income of just under $75K, 65-70% of Atlanta households have effectively been priced out of the housing market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c65576de-9731-4743-8b43-4f4ff95e222f/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.03.43+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy The $300-399K range continues to be the dominant price segment in the Atlanta market, however we have seen a drastic shift to the higher price tiers over the last 12 months. In years past, the $200-$249K and $250-$299K price segments filled out the top three behind the $300-399K segment, but they were replaced by the $400-499K and $500K+ segments in Q2. The number of new home closings below $300K has fallen -49.1% since 2Q21, compared to +54.4% and +51.9% increases in new home closings above $400K and $500K, respectively. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1d2bc960-8607-41ff-a584-c3a387bd30ff/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.04.58+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Total lot deliveries decreased slightly from Q1 (-2.5%) but are up +8.5% since 2Q21. Detached lot deliveries declined by -7.3% from Q1 but increased by +4.5% from 12 months prior. Attached lot deliveries, however, diverged from this pattern and posted quarterly and annual increases of +10.7% and +19.2%, respectively, in Q2. Lot development will likely contract further as the year progresses due to declining demand from uneasy builders. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8eb4ad67-063f-4284-a308-33147d61bf98/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.05.23+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As of Q2, there were approximately 37,400 lots in active development across the Metro area. This represents a slight decrease from Q1 (-0.8%) but a +4.1% increase over the last 12 months. The MSA’s critically low inventory of finished lots justifies a significant uptick in development to better match demand, however high development costs, extended delivery times, and general housing uncertainty will likely cap lot development through the end of the year. . https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/926a92d1-ccd8-4a4a-a862-99fa8d17a0ae/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.06.22+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Detached VDL inventory continued to fall during Q2, however an off-setting decline in starts actually worked to improve the supply of detached lots. Detached lot inventory is down -5.6% from Q1 and -12.1% from 2Q21 while detached supply increased by +3.8% and +8.9% over the same period. While detached VDL inventory will likely continue to fall modestly through the end of the year, we expect home sales to remain well below 2020-2021 levels and supply levels to recalibrate to more normal levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a6f044e7-2393-439f-886e-81b8aebc9119/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.06.45+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Attached VDL inventory and supply remained largely unchanged on both a quarterly and annual basis due to an uptick in lot deliveries and consistent starts activity from builders. Inventory improved slightly from Q1 (+1.7%) and ended Q2 just -5.3% below 2Q21 levels. The supply of attached VDLs increased by +9.8% from Q1 and remains unchanged from 2Q21’s level of 14.6 months. We expect demand for SFA lots and homes to remain strong through the end of the year as builders aim to maximize project density and provide more affordable housing options. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/585d27c9-45b8-43e2-ac24-3a3bb7fe030e/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.09.31+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy Despite an -11.4% decline in housing starts over the last 12 months, Gwinnett County continues to lead the Atlanta MSA in housing starts (3,728 annualized starts). Cherokee, Cobb, Henry, and Forsyth round out the top five, combining for 7,479 annualized starts over the last 12 months. Of the 23 counties analyzed, 16 counties (69.6%) have experienced year-over-year declines in housing starts as builders reign in lot development in light of the general economic uncertainty. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/bc88b514-6dbf-4a05-a238-df493c96ed73/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.09.54+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy As has been the case for more than a decade, Gwinnett leads the metro area in new home closings (3,750 annualized closings). Similar to its starts activity, Gwinnett closings declined on an annual basis but not enough to unseat them from the top of the list. The top five also included Cherokee (1,966), Forsyth (1,866), DeKalb (1,742), and Cobb (1,636). 15 of the 23 counties analyzed (65.2%) experienced declines in new home closings over the last 12 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/fec10594-6d30-4b12-ae60-0d5a57510ee7/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.10.45+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Source: Metrostudy 13 of the 23 counties analyzed (56.5%) increased lot production over the last 12 months in an effort to bring inventory and supply to more normal levels; 9 of these 13 increased lot production by double digit percentages. Gwinnett County, which leads the MSA in lot deliveries, increased lot production by nearly 1,000 lots over the last year (+26.2%). More than half of the counties comprising the top ten list are located outside of the urban core, evidence that lot development is being heavily influenced by the availability and price of land rather than traditional factors like distance from major employment centers, walkabilility, and the strength of the public schools. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5d3678dd-e50c-4ce7-a1fc-8184dfebbf0c/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.11.12+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Walnut Grove in Jackson County (Image Credit - D.R. Horton) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6af99843-ae21-4a60-b118-ae0d00c76e8e/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.12.07+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Townes of Auburn in Barrow County (Image Credit - Rocklyn Homes) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3e9632fc-636c-4414-aa67-12681f04d1de/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.12.57+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy/Zonda https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5652c212-598c-4d65-8cdb-d390a7a6de1c/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.14.37+PM.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Atlanta: 2Q2022 Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/2q2022-national-housing-market-analysis daily 0.75 2022-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2d5bb0d9-510a-4479-a85f-772adfe49204/2Q22+National+Market+Report.jpg 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/fed29bdd-84ec-440b-b96a-07f099fcd117/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.26.41+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e054ea49-3d2a-4762-9f54-53efff068c4d/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.27.13+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a88e9f37-99fc-42e3-bb58-7f939bb15657/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.33.58+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The inflation rate continued to climb during Q2, reaching the highest level seen in the U.S. since November 1981 by the end of June. The Q2 inflation rate of +9.06% is nearly double what it was 12 months prior (+5.39%) and is significantly above the 20-year average of +2.33%. Increases to the Fed Funds Rate, tightening monetary policy, and the pullback of government spending are working to slow consumer spending (lower consumer demand on the economy), decrease borrowing, and return inflation to more normal levels. Most economists predict that these efforts will bring the inflation rate back down towards +5.0% by the end of 2022 and +2.5% by the end of 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c4582834-22f8-477b-8e0f-c4e5c05b10fc/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.34.26+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The Consumer Price Index has increased in line with overall inflation and ended Q2 at 295.33, a +2.7% increase from the end of Q1 and a nearly +9.0% increase from 12 months prior. The CPI increase is underpinned by significant price increases in food (+10.4% YoY) and energy (+41.6%), which includes +59.9%, +38.4%, and +13.7% increases in gasoline, natural gas, and electricity, respectively. These price increases are even tougher on consumers when you consider that inflation-adjusted wages are down -3.6% over the same period. Policymakers are hopeful that these inflationary pains will be short-lived and will ultimately work to restore price stability and ease supply chain issues over the coming months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/86a28628-3d16-447e-b622-2ae15c84e95a/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.36.34+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Wells Fargo Builder Confidence continued its downward trajectory, decreasing from 79 at the end of Q1 to 67 at the end of Q2. Increasing mortgage rates, high land and construction costs, tight supply chains, and diminishing affordability are all contributing to the consistent decline in Builder Confidence. Declining demand should work to ease both pricing and material availability issues over the coming months, but we expect Builder Confidence to continue to decline in the short-term given that there is no quick-fix to these housing-related challenges on the horizon. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ae9217c9-431a-4891-afac-92e25a818194/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.36.59+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Consumer Sentiment hit a record low in Q2, plummeting sharply to a level of 50.0 at the end of June. For context, Consumer Sentiment bottomed out at 71.8 in April 2020 (onset of the pandemic) and 55.3 in November 2008 (onset of the Great Recession). Consumer Sentiment is being heavily influenced by factors such as near-record high inflation, insufficient wage growth, and high interest rates, but will likely rebound once the anti-inflationary measures being taken by the Federal Reserve Bank and U.S. government begin to make a noticeable impact. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b31337af-5d47-45be-a5cb-aaf96af5b0bb/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.38.58+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Annualized starts, which dropped below the 1M mark (982K) for the first time since June 2020, fell by -17.6% during Q2 and are down -15.6% from 12 months ago. Annualized completions fell by -5.3% to 996K during Q2 but remain +8.0% above their 2Q21 level. Despite consistent declines in recent months, both starts and completions remain above their long-term average levels. We expect this downward trajectory to continue in the short-term based on the evident pullback in demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ce67c92f-1486-4740-9f11-840102e0f510/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.39.21+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Multifamily starts fared far better than their single-family counterpart during Q2, increasing by +9.9% from Q1 and by +15.2 from 2Q21. Completions fell slightly (-3.67%) from Q1 but are up +17.5% compared to their 2Q21 level. Skyrocketing home prices and mortgage rates have put additional pressure on the rental supply, and multifamily developers currently have a record number of units under construction to try to meet this demand. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0158b0ea-ddac-4fa3-a58e-db3ae226b51a/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.41.46+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: U.S. Census Bureau New home sales declined by -16.6% during Q2 and are down -17.4% from their 2Q21 level as unprecedented home price growth and rising interest rates have reduced the number of financially eligible buyers in the market. At just under 600K annualized new home sales, the current level is +12.9% above the long-term average. New home prices responded to faltering demand by declining by -7.7% during Q2, however prices are still up +7.4% compared to 12 months ago. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/129bba40-16fc-43cc-85d8-4de64f4eb4e2/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.42.10+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: National Association of Realtors Due to a combination of rising home prices and increasing mortgage rates, existing single-family home sales have decreased by -15.5% since the beginning of the year and are down -12.8% over the last 12 months. Extremely low inventory has propped home prices up, however, and the median price for an existing home reached $423,300 at the end of Q2. This represents a +15.9% increase since January and a +13.3% increase from 2Q21. When adjusted for inflation, REAL home prices are up +7.8% from 2Q21. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c2e132cc-542a-4530-b48a-1598142dfe8e/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.46.09+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/fcc75ec1-44b3-4318-9cec-2a9b52023b1c/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.46.49+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/19cd7a8f-11a2-4451-afc6-c41fd0271e9c/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.50.43+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6c0f27a7-fc6f-47c0-9cde-ba16c71d5384/Screen+Shot+2022-08-12+at+9.51.06+PM.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png 2Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/atlanta-3q2022-housing-market-analysis-copy daily 0.75 2022-11-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/aeb3c7ce-edd5-4634-9d1e-eb9523d9d2af/3Q2022.jpg Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/f757b1f2-7d70-48aa-9919-de32b2d270fd/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.07.07+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6f97a154-f87c-4088-98b3-cf013c52cd3c/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.07.44+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/356391dc-3485-41e1-977f-992b3322fd71/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.09.55+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c79721aa-7b26-4ecd-a519-4ded6db58d8d/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.10.38+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b53a71a1-25b2-4e19-b449-4f78554af628/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.11.38+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Total annualized starts activity declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q3, falling -6.8% over the last 12 months. SFD and SFA starts declined by -6.9% and -6.7%, respectively, during Q3 and have declined by -23.8% and -17.3% over the last 12 months. Despite the recent decline, SFA starts remain well above (+27.5%) their pre-pandemic level as homebuilders are increasingly turning towards this product type as a way to maximize project density, reduce construction costs, and offer more affordable product. We expect starts activity to continue to reflect homebuilders’ diminished confidence given consistently high home prices and mortgage rates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/bb1d6296-8835-4be7-bb6c-9cf650411a09/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.12.56+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Across the MSA, the $300K-$399K price range continues to capture the largest share of housing starts (32.5%), although the margin separating this price tier from the next ($400K-$499K: 29.1%) is shrinking quickly. In fact, an astonishing 23.4% of new homes started over the last 12 months are being listed above the $500K price point as compared to just 13.1% in the preceding 12-month period. Cooling demand could bring about a mild resurgence of housing starts in the lower price tiers over the next 6-12 months, but high land and construction costs combined with relatively low supply will likely keep the vast majority of housing starts in the upper price tiers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/de659fec-015b-491d-aa77-140a61a85ca9/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.14.34+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy New home closings declined on both a quarterly and annual basis during Q3, declining by -3.5% and -12.2%, respectively, over the last 12 months. SFD closings fell by -3.9% during Q3 and are down -14.0% on an annual basis; SFA closings were largely aligned with their detached counterparts, declining by -2.4% on a quarterly basis and by -6.3% on an annual basis. High home prices and increasing mortgage rates have had a significant impact on the number of Atlanta households that can afford to purchase a new home, and closings will continue to reflect diminished buyer confidence in the current market. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1baf077c-6167-4aa2-9912-b831883b872d/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.15.25+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy The number of new home closings fell for all price segments below $400K during Q3. New home closings below $400K declined by -36.9% during Q3, whereas new home closings above $400K increased by +50.4% over the same period. In fact, new home closings above $400K represented 48.5% of all new home closings across Metro Atlanta in Q3, a significant jump from the 28.3% share these upper price points represented in 2021. We expect prices to come down slightly over the coming months due to waning demand, but high construction costs and limited inventory will prop pricing up in the short term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/82de44d1-289e-4252-9980-741d630ef132/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.16.55+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/53a8775d-911a-476c-83e0-16ebb89b3c97/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.17.38+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b2510fc0-1f69-4425-b9f0-b431bfa4b34a/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.22.20+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Despite the uptick in SFD lot deliveries on both a quarterly and annual basis, SFD VDL inventory fell by -2.2% during Q3 and is down -8.9% from 12 months ago. Because the decline in new SFD home closings over this period was more significant than the decline in SFD VDL inventory, the months’ supply rebounded modestly. SFD VDL supply has improved by +6.9% from the end of Q2 and by +19.7% from 12 months ago, reaching 23.1 months at the end of September. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/d96ef695-541a-47ee-94f2-8a83eeb2d519/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.22.55+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy The notable increase in SFA lot development and deliveries over the last 12 months has worked to balance the increasing demand for this product type as builders look for ways to maximize project density and offer smaller, more affordable homes. The inventory of SFA VDLs declined by -9.4% during Q3 but remains relatively unchanged (-1.7%) from inventory levels 12 months ago. Because demand for this product type has proven to be a bit more resilient than its SFD counterpart, the months’ supply of SFA VDLs remains near record low levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4ef60fce-17bc-4d96-be3d-3dc7d5e3c641/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.24.00+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett continues to lead the MSA with 3,636 new homes started over the last 12 months. The list of top performing counties is mostly unchanged from Q2 with Cherokee, Cobb, S Fulton, and Henry coming in behind Gwinnett to round out the top five. Of the 23 counties analyzed, 19 (83%) of them experienced year-over-year declines in starts during Q3. The most notable increases were from Fayette (+16.2%) and Dawson (+18.8%); the most notable declines were Dekalb (-41.2%) and Forsyth (-42.2%). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9ef5593f-e03e-4dea-8edf-92f5e101db8a/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.24.24+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett led the MSA in new home closings during Q3 with 3,483. The rest of the top five was rounded out by Cherokee, Forsyth, Henry, and Dekalb which combined for 7,261 total new home closings. Only 8 of the 23 counties analyzed experienced an increase in annualized closings during Q3, led by +33.3% and +22.4% increases in Fayette and Dawson, respectively. The counties with the most notable annualized declines over the same period were Rockdale (-42.7%) and Clayton (-48.6%). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/44ac8b15-d0f4-4228-b2e9-9836a1f6be22/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.25.15+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett led the Atlanta MSA in lot development, delivering 4,165 lots over the last 12 months. Cherokee, S Fulton, Cobb, and Jackson counties filled out the top five, accounting for 6,779 combined lot deliveries over the last 12 months. 11 of the 23 counties analyzed increased annualized lot deliveries during Q3, led by Rockdale (+144.8%), Bartow (+139.2%), and Jackson (+132.0%). Interestingly, the 11 counties that increased in lot deliveries significantly increased - by double digit percentages. The most notable declines in lot deliveries over this period include Carroll (-100.0%), Spalding (-94.8%), and Dekalb (-75.8%). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8b066082-1ba8-447e-b42d-336665adb47f/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.25.48+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Carlton North - Lennar (Source: Realtor.com) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/cb87952c-2b03-4bad-b296-09987c69a6ae/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.26.30+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Renaissance at South Park - Rocklyn Homes (Source: NewHomeSource.com) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/13fe40c7-e415-424c-901e-5ab15e8e264c/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.27.27+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy/Zonda, Jackson County Tax Assessor, Fulton County Tax Assessor * Sales data not yet available, average price is estimated based on the current list price of completed specs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/aebf8717-759a-410a-98de-1a559b732b8d/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.28.36+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4193f29f-0b56-44ff-8595-cd9c8b4a16eb/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.29.05+PM.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Atlanta: 3Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/3q2022-national-housing-market-analysis-copy daily 0.75 2022-11-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6f3a8314-ccf1-4372-b1c4-2ad270a6de77/3Q2022National.jpg 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/acd3e110-447e-4a90-b73e-d9607b3aa479/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.35.37+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/265e49e2-4911-4d9c-8c51-38e71eb29a23/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.35.59+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/101b5771-6393-4b67-a88c-80557d6ccca8/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.37.19+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The Federal Reserve Bank increased rates twice during Q3 (150 total basis points) in an effort to curb inflation, however inflation remained sticky during this period. Inflation fell from 9.06% in Q2 to 8.20% in Q3, well below the expectations (and hopes) of national economists. The Fed is committed to reducing inflation and is expected to increase rates by another 150 basis points before the end of 2022. The current sentiment is that it will likely be 2025 before inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% benchmark. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/59011212-1048-4b2c-b373-9104fd6f427f/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.37.45+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The Consumer Price Index remained relatively flat during Q3, increasing by +0.48% from Q2 and by +8.22% since the beginning of the year. Ideally, we would have seen the CPI decline during Q3, however it’s encouraging to note that the rate of CPI increases has declined significantly; the +0.48% increase in Q3 is a notable improvement over the +2.65% increase we saw in Q2 and the +2.71% increase we saw in Q1. In Q3, declining gas and energy process were largely offset by increases in food, shelter, and medical care. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6ccda591-ab76-48c2-b252-adfb43dae112/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.38.47+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Wages & salaries continued their upward trajectory in Q3, increasing by +1.7% from the end of June. Wages & salaries have increased by +4.8% since the start of the year and by +8.2% over the last 12 months. While +8% annual growth is well above the long term average, it’s worth noting that the annual growth has decelerated for 6 consecutive months. Additionally, this annual increase is largely being offset by high inflation and the comparatively high costs of consumer goods and services. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/f86215da-fac4-4b17-bd59-01f9774e0e17/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.39.28+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers After hitting the lowest level on record (50.0) at the end of Q2, Consumer Sentiment rebounded modestly during Q3 to 58.6 and currently stands at a 5-month high. This rebound was driven by a noticeable drop in gas prices combined with strong jobs reports but kept in check due to modest declines in the long-term outlook of business conditions and fears of a looming recession. Despite Q3’s bump, Consumer Sentiment is down -17.0% since January and -19.5% over the last 12 months and is expected to remain well below the long-term average level as consumers contend with the economy’s mixed signals. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/77bac97a-f175-4312-b9b5-59cd92317ffb/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.41.04+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: YCharts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e9d9cc21-1622-4123-b632-3abe4bcb9e1a/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.41.51+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: YCharts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4cd72c25-7691-44d7-b15c-61d7bc2591d6/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.43.27+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0019e50f-cd51-48ce-ade3-486e5fd4829a/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.44.12+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/79f87952-409f-4146-bd45-103c4c9d9d1a/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.46.56+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7dd7cc1e-30c7-4d13-82d5-d0e31863eb75/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.47.27+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/534e460c-50b4-40c9-a7a6-c042d3fffa91/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.48.30+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: National Association of Homebuilders https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/52b6c170-1093-4363-b73e-83b463ce81d4/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.48.57+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e099981e-c735-46f1-890c-d6f1e4f87f4f/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.52.24+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e2622122-6c2b-4648-a8cd-41c252765280/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.53.08+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/aeb44544-21d0-4bab-a429-873e7e872142/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.55.56+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/12e3a305-0b8f-41b9-87ff-45fc4248f279/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.56.24+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ffa1f3d0-f7bc-4019-a5ff-3933b994a142/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.59.08+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0b37167d-4c35-4fda-a2f9-4aebf9254554/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.59.32+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a13d7f72-2db4-44dd-b80b-73f9c28952fe/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+3.02.44+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: National Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/4f447850-58be-41fd-bc64-ee0bc5ccfd38/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+3.04.47+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9ff41e53-b666-416d-b64d-633f8caf1462/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+3.03.20+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: National Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/163f1db0-97da-4383-bb42-05ac51beeb6f/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+3.07.11+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/fd8fb566-efcd-460f-9cd3-a045f655a1b7/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+3.08.45+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/25344afd-e854-4737-b5a7-72e9339a033e/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+3.07.49+PM.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png 3Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/market-reports daily 0.75 2023-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ce435d6bea1ed00016ba287/1558964652247-5MWXNMFZVOPGE4TY6U2Q/MHeiderich_ReflexionenZwei-05-copy.jpg Market Reports https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/cafa5c58-1093-4d3e-9a71-91bd05fffc5f/MARKET+REPORT+Nat+Year+End+2022.jpg Market Reports - National Housing Market Report Year End 2022 (March, 2023) PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1289b5e7-3a7f-44d2-b34f-39d0401d167e/MARKET+REPORT+ATL+Year+End+2022.jpg Market Reports - Atlanta Housing Market Report 4Q2022 (February, 2023) PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5a6c41ce-79b4-486c-b808-8fd94f625221/3Q2022.jpg Market Reports - Atlanta Housing Market Report 3Q2022 (November, 2022) PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c572a419-7604-4bcb-b4b8-651fc2ae2a69/3Q2022National.jpg Market Reports - National Housing Market Report 3Q2022 (November, 2022) PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/83bfa079-20d5-4dcd-8164-249e2e9e07de/MARKET+REPORT+Atlanta+2Q2022.jpg Market Reports - Atlanta Housing Market Report 2Q2022 (August, 2022) PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/564cf10e-3981-4f81-a296-95317ed7dbe4/2Q22+National+Market+Report.jpg Market Reports - 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Atlanta Housing Market Report 3Q2021 November, 2021 PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1630327968084-65RJ0YQH2H07MZVM16CO/NHMR+2Q2021.jpg Market Reports - National Housing Market Report 2Q2021 August 27th, 2021 PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1630327984774-WQD8WW6Z5DWISAOOS5JF/AHMR+2Q2021.jpg Market Reports - Atlanta Housing Market Report 2Q2021 August 27th, 2021 PDF | Online version https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1627305057029-JIJ476OJI9W7DKJZJ4PY/NHMR+1Q2021jpg.jpg Market Reports - National Housing Market Report 1Q2021 May 28, 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1627304255477-ZF6NPH4148X2IOKTBHCK/AHMR+1Q2021.jpg Market Reports - Atlanta Housing Market Report 1Q2021 May 28, 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1627304865964-QYHKTJO3JPQ7WPZUTN3T/NHMR+YEAR+END+2020.jpg Market Reports - National Housing Market Report Year End 2020 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1627304642405-PQ9P73M2QFCR4DP2O4TQ/AHMR+YEAR+END+2020.jpg Market Reports - Atlanta Housing Market Report Year End 2020 March 29, 2021 https://www.stbourke.com/atlanta-4q2022-housing-market-analysis daily 0.75 2023-02-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1289b5e7-3a7f-44d2-b34f-39d0401d167e/MARKET+REPORT+ATL+Year+End+2022.jpg Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ffae7447-4afa-4e4d-ac63-1ae783a7733f/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.45.48+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/117ded87-2a7c-4383-9a09-5914d6c2b059/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.46.24+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3d7a2f69-04c2-4d9c-ae80-8a0f160f09e4/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.47.47+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c237e31f-0871-41eb-9fa7-0dc198e9650d/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.48.30+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Atlanta Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6368659c-c66b-49fe-9bf1-e18c8514cb7c/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.50.12+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Total annualized housing starts declined by -15% during Q4 and by -25% since the start of the year (lowest level since 1Q17). Detached starts fell by -15% during Q4 and are down -26% over the last 12 months, ending the year -12% below pre-pandemic levels (2019). Attached starts fell by -16% and -23% during Q4 and 2022, respectively, but remain +9% above pre-pandemic levels. We have already begun to see evidence that homebuilder sentiment in the Atlanta market is rebounding; while we expect both attached and detached starts to improve modestly during 2023 from current levels, we don’t believe that total starts will return to pre-pandemic levels before the end of 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c7d3807f-653e-40f7-a8f6-f0ae7da2938d/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.50.37+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Increased land, materials, and labor costs contributed to an increased number of housing starts in the upper price tiers in 2022. The $300K range continues to represent the largest share of starts in this market, but not by much - the share of homes in this range is less than 1% greater than homes in the $400K range. Over the last 12 months, the share of new homes started below the $400K price point fell by -49%, further evidence of Atlanta’s compounding affordability challenges. Declining materials and labor costs might provide some mild price relief during 2023, but the limited supply of viable lots will continue to push housing starts towards the upper price tiers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/791c2999-fa9a-4d03-ba32-d86196d01e56/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.51.43+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Total annualized new home closings declined on both a quarterly and yearly basis during Q4, falling by -5% and -13%, respectively. Detached closings fell by -6% from Q3 and by -14% over the last 12 months; attached closings fared slightly better, declining by -5% and -9% over the same periods. While total closings are down on an annual basis, it’s important to note that they remain nearly +6% above pre-pandemic (2019) levels, an indicator of resilient demand and relative affordability. With inflation, mortgage rates, and home price acceleration trending downward, we expect new home closings to remain above pre-pandemic levels in 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7108b567-8ef3-4465-b63f-18e259d6fce2/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.52.07+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Atlanta’s housing market was deemed “unaffordable” in 2022, and the pricing evidence certainly supports this designation. The number of new homes sold below the $400K price point declined by -44% over the last 12 months, whereas the number of new homes sold for more than $400K increased by +56% over the same period. With a median household income of just over $69K, the typical Atlanta household can afford a monthly mortgage payment of just $1,610 (28% of gross monthly income). Assuming a 6.5% interest rate, the maximum loan a typical household could qualify for is approximately $260K - well below Atlanta’s median home price of $389K. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e9b76d32-d146-47f1-80da-e5788fe0ead2/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.53.04+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/87e75206-21c7-4808-a12c-ab47d585de20/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.53.31+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/50bfdb10-d638-4140-bd55-0dbc964b6adc/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.54.27+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Single-family detached VDL inventory continued to trend downward in 2022, falling by -5% over the last 12 months to approximately 37K finished SFD lots. Note that Atlanta is known for its comparatively high percentage of “zombie lots” - relics from before the Great Recession that will likely never see new home construction - and the actual inventory of viable SFD VDLs could be as low as 28K. Because the decline of SFD housing starts outpaced the decline of SFD VDL inventory, however the supply actually improved during the year to 26.7 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/addca0c5-a108-421b-a2dc-d2fdb3f1eca5/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.54.54+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Single-family attached VDL inventory improved on both a quarterly (+2%) and annual (+6%) basis during 2022 due to a combination of increasing SFA lot development and declining housing starts. SFA housing product has become increasingly popular amongst both builders and buyers over the last 12 months; attached product is attractive to buyers as it is generally offered at a lower price point than its detached counterpart, and attached product is attractive to builders because it allows them to maximize site density and reduce per unit costs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a2d1c0eb-faed-4648-a374-b7e4ccfa20c1/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.55.58+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Gwinnett led the Atlanta MSA in total housing starts, beginning more than 3,100 new homes over the last 12 months. Historically strong performers like Cobb and Fulton remain in the top 10 but are quickly being surpassed by emerging stars like Cherokee, Jackson, and Forsyth. Starts activity will continue to be heavily influenced by the availability and price of land, so we expect suburban and exurban development to become even more pervasive during 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/664646dc-5651-469c-b41e-6fcb684addb9/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.56.22+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy Of the 23 counties analyzed for this report, only 3 counties started more homes in 2022 than they did in 2021: Dawson, Fayette, and Jackson. The other 20 counties comprising the Atlanta MSA experienced annual declines ranging from -2% (S Fulton) to -56% (Clayton); even juggernauts like Gwinnett, Cobb, and N Fulton experienced significant, double-digit declines in housing starts over the last 12 months. For context, only 6 counties experience declines in starts activity when we ran this analysis 12 months ago. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/0c559b7f-ce4f-45cb-baa5-8bcbecbcd9dc/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.57.23+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy As with starts, Gwinnett maintained its dominance in new home sales during 2022, closing nearly 3,500 new homes over the 12-month period. Also similar to starts, many of the top performing counties are located in Atlanta’s distance suburbs and exurbs (30+ miles from the urban core) where land, and therefore homes, are more plentiful and affordable. Given our expectation that home prices will not experience a significant backslide in 2023, we anticipate that suburban and exurban counties offering comparatively lower-cost homes will comprise an increasing share of new home closings in 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/bf8b3d95-e0ea-47b2-af70-c9d53ca3b654/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.00.48+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/2f23d2a3-29c1-4611-9ed2-f65da4d91f39/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+10.58.53+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Source: Metrostudy 17 of the 23 counties analyzed for this report experienced annual declines in new home closings, an unsurprising fact given the rapid run-up in both home prices and mortgage rates over the last 12 months. Fayette, Dawson, Barrow, and Henry counties, however, all experienced double-digit increases in new home closings during 2022 - further evidence that price is driving home sales more than location, at least for now. Despite the widespread decline in closings during 2022, it’s important to note that 14 of the 23 counties analyzed above still reported annual sales figures above their pre-pandemic levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/30514120-2300-41f4-a293-dd240802ad4f/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.01.33+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/df3b23a1-0553-48ec-b7da-d60ee7914b5c/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.02.50+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy/Zonda and DeKalb, Fulton, Barrow, Cherokee, Jackson, Henry, and Gwinnett County Tax Assessors. Note: When sales transaction data was not publicly available, current listing data was used to calculate average price. * Combined across all sub-communities and homebuilders. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/88f13b82-c9eb-4d6b-8b02-a484d881ec0f/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.04.10+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy/Zonda and Fulton, Jackson, Barrow, Dawson, Forsyth, Fayette, and Spalding County Tax Assessors. Note: When sales transaction data was not publicly available, current listing data was used to calculate average price. * Combined across all sub-communities and homebuilders. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/10c5c235-eef3-466e-9953-0760641aefb2/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.06.28+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b624a520-aa97-4df6-ba5f-e51aa834fe2c/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.07.59+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/8325ba6e-5656-47f6-b9dc-b4c361d87b80/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.09.47+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/928aa282-7df6-4323-9395-1157930362f6/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.11.29+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy/Zonda https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b480ac74-6059-4691-8e7f-48fbf0fc1eff/Screen+Shot+2023-02-21+at+11.12.28+AM.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Source: Metrostudy/Zonda https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png Atlanta: 4Q2022 Housing Market Analysis (Copy) (Copy) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/4q2022-national-housing-market-analysis daily 0.75 2023-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/cafa5c58-1093-4d3e-9a71-91bd05fffc5f/MARKET+REPORT+Nat+Year+End+2022.jpg 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/d81bf515-1d6b-428c-8d6c-d25a30661c5b/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+10.35.02+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/396f6e22-cb4a-40ab-a0ac-9c19f4be10f5/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+10.36.05+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/f1e61213-deed-4d30-a453-f604055ee05e/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+10.37.02+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation declined steadily through the second half of 2022 as the effects of the Fed’s inflation-fighting measures began to materialize. The inflation rate peaked at 9% in June but ended the year nearly 250 basis points lower at 6.5%. Inflation is expected to continue this downward trend through 2023, and many economist believe that the inflation rate will decline to 3-4% over the next 12 months. Note that this projection remains above the Fed’s target of 2-2.5%, so we should not expect any rate cuts in 2023. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/b28f7b7a-3764-4e7f-80e4-a07743bdf389/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+10.37.32+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unlike its related counterpart inflation, the CPI has yet to pivot and begin its descent to more normal levels. However, we did see CPI flatten during Q4, a welcome sign that consumer prices for goods and services have begun to stabilize, and the measure declined very slightly from November to December (-0.08%). CPI is expected to increase during 2023, however most economists project that the annual increase will reflect a more typical growth rate of +3% as compared to the +6.5% growth we saw in 2022. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/7a7bc8a1-fc26-4a0d-8636-2f4a80cb7da7/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+10.38.33+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The year-over-year change in wages & salaries declined steadily during 2022, falling from +10.1% annual growth in January to +5.3% annual growth in December (although still well above the 20-year average of +4.2% annual growth). While a moderation in the increase of wages & salaries in largely intentional and an indication that the Fed’s aggressive actions to cool the economy and curb inflation are taking effect, consumers continue to pay (literally) for the imbalance between inflation (+6.5%) and wage growth (+5.3%). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/762a8447-1d68-4ea5-9fa0-75d441309260/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+10.39.33+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Consumer sentiment followed a downward trajectory through the first half of 2022 as concerns regarding inflation and a potential recession became more prevalent. Consumer sentiment bottomed out at 50.0 in June when the inflation rate peaked above 9%, representing the lowest level ever recorded. Consumer sentiment improved steadily through the second half of the year based on positive inflation reports and declining prices of key consumer goods like gasoline, and the metric increased to 59.7 by the end of December. Consumer sentiment should continue to improve in line with inflation and other economic metrics during 2023, and we expect it to return to 2021 levels over the next 12 months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/77bac97a-f175-4312-b9b5-59cd92317ffb/Screen+Shot+2022-11-23+at+2.41.04+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: YCharts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a479d283-459b-4336-b5a1-c859fd8204e4/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.53.25+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: YCharts https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/5f3aa762-e1d5-4cd7-93f5-0410eaae6029/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.54.10+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/c688d43d-ffd7-4b6f-af6c-a3064f88d4ac/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.54.38+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Source: Mortgage Bankers Association https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3c3453de-626d-4f8e-954f-878a4dc01fa6/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.55.30+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/dd5cb0d3-c2b7-4b86-9dd1-f745f60565f5/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.55.57+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/9a718936-008e-4665-8835-2f610bd75518/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.56.52+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: National Association of Homebuilders https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6c590ffb-7897-44ee-a91e-892449250717/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.57.17+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/3ce641d2-bbb0-4e44-aafa-e85fda1b55b9/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.58.23+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/85a7cb71-94ff-4c49-b85b-22e46a4cc998/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+11.58.54+AM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e24c1656-32e0-4a9f-ad5a-4a63b99ef6de/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.00.01+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/284f4cd1-b267-4246-99f6-55a64a9f6a9c/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.00.31+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/566ea1b2-36e5-4465-891f-778e2a5e34b4/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.01.25+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/98111d53-11be-4c46-a44b-81e369286ebb/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.01.53+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/e0d6c9cd-c511-41d5-8c0a-63c3643a48b1/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.03.42+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: National Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/90024347-2626-4ad7-a081-d777ba66e83e/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.05.12+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/ecfdc0d8-20d5-4af4-849a-2d28402d70c3/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.04.07+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: National Association of Realtors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/6107c5d5-ab46-4246-a3fa-1f25d263dddd/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.06.22+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/a9c833f6-d560-4e23-8389-3ce9df67dc95/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.07.40+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/36c0c318-7a48-4e98-9f97-bf102a77ae54/Screen+Shot+2023-03-05+at+12.06.45+PM.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Source: U.S. Census Bureau https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1633089098604-JK14VAXSGP85YXW4X7WF/StB+color+anchor.png 4Q2022 National Housing Market Analysis - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.stbourke.com/our-placemaking-projects-1 daily 0.75 2023-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ce435d6bea1ed00016ba287/1558964652247-5MWXNMFZVOPGE4TY6U2Q/MHeiderich_ReflexionenZwei-05-copy.jpg Where https://www.stbourke.com/what daily 1.0 2026-01-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1602787223406-FS57DCI45YXGXS7ZX3SW/StB+web+banner+logo+big.png What https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/54ded7f1-adfe-487b-965f-1499154249c8/Screen+Shot+2023-07-06+at+12.39.49+AM.png What https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1608079657680-8VW9KM1QC8O7QZY51N8N/StB+WEB+illo+mother+CORE+VALUES.png What https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5f8897225a986860f52fb78c/1614369518213-MUDDFFCJ2FA3JOADGW8K/StB+WEB+MAP+STATES+2021.png What - Our Portfolio The St. Bourke portfolio currently consists of 80 residential and commercial projects encompassing nearly 10,000 acres of land across 14 U.S. markets.